EURUSD rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3248, while the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 caps, will complete this rise with prices then moving within a 1.2945-1.3248 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the short term fall from Monday’s 1.3582 high, prices have reached 1.3147 but have not opened and closed below 1.3248 on a daily basis. A daily close above 1.3313 will complete the short trem fall from 1.3582 while yesterday’s 1.3147 low holds, as prices will then continue move higher within a 1.3313-1.3416 zone. For the session ahead, risk appears to be for further price extension to the upside with 1.3313 and 1.3365 as the next objectives.
GBPUSD rise from March 30, 2009 low of 1.4110 has reached 1.4957 and remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.4633 will complete this rise with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.4434-1.4633 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. For the session ahead, For the session ahead, look for a 4 hour close below 1.4633 to extend prices lower towards 1.4432, while a 4 hour close above 1.4757 confirming further upside risk. As to the broad outlook, the trend remains firmly to the downside while below 1.5475.
EURUSD remains in a complex corrective structure of the 1.4718-1.2455 fall as prices risk further rise to 1.3854 before another attempt to the downside. ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3097 would eliminate any medium term risk to the upside with prices then likely to continue lower initially towards 1.2945. As to the short term outlook, EURUSD remains bid while nearterm support at 1.3499 holds. For the sesssion, look to buy EURUSD within the 1.3447-1.3499 zone for further rise to 1.3854.
GBPUSD corrective rise from the March 30, 2009 low of 1.4110 remains with the February 9, 2009 high of 1.4984 as the objective, with a sustained break witnessing further price extension towards 1.5247 as the next objective. ONLY below 1.4527 would eliminate this outlook as prices would then continue to move lower towards 1.4249 beore another attempt to the upside. For the session ahead, look to buy GBPUSD within the 1.4796-1.4832 zone for 1.4984 initial target.
EURUSD’s short term active wave from the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 is complete at the March 30, 2009 low of 1.3114 as prices have moved within the 1.3352-1.3504 consolidation zone. Now that prices have moved within the above mentioned zone, a sustained break outside the 1.3352-1.3504 zone will see further price extension in the direction of the brreak with 1.3590 and 1.3738 as the initial upside targets while the to the downside 1.3260 and 1.3113 represent initial downside targets. The medium term outlook continues to favor narrowing price range with trendline resistance from the December 18, 2008 high coming in at 1.3600 while trendline support from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 coming in at 1.3230. As to the broad outlook, ONLY a monthly open and close above 1.4194 will complete the downside correction while the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328 holds, with further upside price extension to follow. However, until prices close above 1.4194 the broad outlook risk.
EURUSD’s corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 is complete at the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 with Monday’s daily open and close below 1.3248. Risk for further intraday downside extension remains while the 38.2 of the 1.3738 -1.3113 intraday fall at 1.3352 caps. Above 1.3352 intraday will see further rise towards 1.3425 while sustained prices below 1.3200 suggest further downside extension. For the session ahead, look to EURUSD to continue to move lower with 1.3097 as the initial target, while above 1.3352 will see prices continue to move higher initially towards 1.3425.
EURUSD intraday fall from Friday’s 1.3591 high has reached 1.3181 during today’s Asia session, with a daily close below 1.3248 today confirming the corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 is complete at the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3591. A daily close today below 1.3248 will see prices continue to move lower within a 1.2945-1.3248 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the intraday fall from Friday’s 1.3591 high, this wave remains active as ONLY a daily close above 1.3338 will complete this fall while today’s current low of 1.3181 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3338-1.3434 consolidation zone. Once prices have entered into the consolidation zone, any sustained break outside the zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. For the session ahead, look for intraday prices to continue to move while 1.3338 caps, with 1.3097 as the next objective.
GBPUSD corrective rise from the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653 will be complete at the March 24, 2009 high of 1.4776 with a daily close today below 1.4347, as prices will continue to move lower within a 1.4082-1.4347 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Once prices have closed within the above mentioned zone, any sustained break such as a daily close outside the zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the intraday fall from Friday’s 1.4493 high, this wave remains active as ONLY a daily close above 1.4288 will complete this fall. No change in the medium term outlook, as the impulsive wave from the September 25, 2008 high of 1.8666 remains active with a daily open and close above 1.5475 completing the fall at the January 23, 2009 low of 1.3502. For the session ahead, look for GBPUSD to continue to move lower towards 1.4082 while intraday prices should remain below 1.4212.
XAUUSD remains offered intraday while the broad outlook for Gold remains bid. Trendline support from the October 2008 low of 680.95 comes in around 920 today, while this rise from 680.85 remains active until a daily open and close below 881.74. As mentioned in the March 17, 2009 update, support at 881.74 look remains firm as ONLY a daily open and close below this level will see prices continue to correct lower within a 805.03-881.71 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Again, once prices have close within the above mentioned zone, a daily open and close outside the zone will see further price extention in the direction of the break.
DJIA corrective rise from the March 6, 2009 low of 6,470.15 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 7,373.06 will complete this rise while the March 25, 2009 high of 7,931.17 holds. In our March 10, 2009 update, we stated that a daily open and close above 7,147.78 will complete the fall from the February 6, 2009 high of 8,315.07 at the March 6, 2009 low of 6,469.95 as prices would then continue to move higher within a 7147-7610 zone before another attempt to the downside, however, a sustained break of this zone would see further price extension in the direction of the break. Our outlook proved to be spot on as once daily prices opened and closed above 7147, further extension to the upside unfolded eventually reaching 7,931. As to the broad outlook, the fall from the April 2008 high of 13,141 remians firmly to the downside as ONLY a weekly open and close above 9,015.5 will complete this fall with prices subsequently moving within a 9015-10.591 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
EURUSD’s short term corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3248 will complete this rise while the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 holds. As to yesterday’s intraday fall from 1.3640, this wave is now complete at yesterday’s 1.3493 low with prices currently trading within the 1.3549-1.3584 intraday consolidation zone. A sustained break of this intraday consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. Regardng the medium term outlook, the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 is complete at the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 as prices have moved within the sited 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone. A daily open and close outside this medium term consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break with 1.4234 as the upside target while 1.3021 represents the downside target.
GBPUSD’s short term corrective rise from the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.4347 will complete this rise with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.4082-1.4347 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to yesterday’s intraday fall from 1.4636, this wave remains active as only a 4 hour open and close above 1.4504 will complete this intraday fall while yesteday’s 1.4422 low holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.4504-1.4554 intraday consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
We will have a detailed outlook after today’s close as to next week’s outlook.
EURUSD’s corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as only a daily open and close below 1.3248 will complete this rise while the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 holds. As to the the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, this wave is complete at 1.2455 with prices currently within the sited 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone as was our forecast in the March 6, 2009 update. For the session ahead, look for initial support at 1.3430 to hold with prices continuing to move higher targeting 1.3854 as the next objective.
GBPUSD also remains firm as the short term rise from March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653 remains active as only a daily open and close below 1.4346 will complete this fall while yesterday’s 1.4774 high holds, as prices will then continue to move lower within a 1.4081-1.4346 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Look for prices to continue to move higher while minor support at 1.4613 holds with the March 9, 2009 high of 1.4984 as the next objective. However, should prices sustain below 1.4613, then risk on an intraday basis will turn to the downside with 1.4519 followed by 1.4449 as the next objectives. So, for the session ahead, look for buying opportunities within the 1.4613-1.4651 zone for further price extension to the initially targeting 1.4984.
EURUSD corrective rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 remains active as only a daily open and close below 1.3248 will complete this rise while the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 high holds, as prices will then move within the 1.2945-1.3248 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the medium term fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, this fall is complete at 1.2455 with prices currently within the 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone A daily open and close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break with 1.4234 as the upside target while 1.3021 represents the downside target. For the session ahead, look for bids ahead of 1.3600 to hold with intial offers ahead of Thursdays 1.3738 high.
GBPUSD continues to favor further upside extension while prices remain above 1.4253, as a daily open and close below this level will see prices continue to move lower towards 1.4024 before another attempt to the upside. As to the short term rise from Friday’s 1.4393, look for further upside extension towards 1.4597, as a sustained break here will see prices continue to move higher targeting 1.4699 while 1.4530 supports. For the session ahead, look for initial bids ahead of 1.4530 to support with 1.4699 as the next objective, while below 1.4530 will see prices continue to move lower towards 1.4400.
EURUSD’s medium term impulsive wave from the December 12, 2008 high of 1.4718 is complete at the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 as yesterday’s daily open and close above 1.3319 confimed completion of the above mentioned wave with prices currently trading within the 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone. Now that daily prices have closed within the 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone, a daily open and close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the corrective wave from 1.2455, ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3248 will complete this rise while yesterday’s 1.3738 high caps. For the session ahead, look for bids ahead of 1.3600 to hold with prices then continuing to move higher with 1.3854 as the next objective. Below 1.3540 will take the intraday pressure off the upside with risk for further price extension to the downside.
GBPUSD’s impulsivewave from the February 9, 2009 high of 1.4984 is complete at the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3502 as yesterday’s daily open and close above 1.4161 completed this fall with prices continuing to move higher reaching 1.4595 during yesterday’s US session. Short term risk remains to the upside while prices hold above 1.4306 with 1.4660 followed by 1.4984 as the next objective. As to the broad outlook, the trend remains firmly to the downside as the impulsive wave from the September 25, 2008 high of 1.8666 remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close above 1.5475 completes this fall while the March 2009 low of 1.3502 holds. For the session ahead, look for bids ahead of 1.4428 to hold with further price extension to the upside targeting 1.4660 as the next objective, however, a 2 hour open and close below 1.4306 will take the intraday pressure off the upside.
We will have a detailed outlook for the week ahaead after today’s close. RW
EURUSD ’s daily close on Wednesday of 1.3487 was the highest daily close since January 8, 2009 and has moved the pair within the previously sited 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone. However, prices will need to close today above 1.3319 to complete the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 at 1.2455, but to firm the upside risk will now need to close today above 1.3487. So, a daily close today above 1.3487 will see prices continue to move higher towards 1.3854 before another attempt to the downside. Now that prices have moved within the 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone, a daily close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the short term rise from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455, this rise remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3121 will complete this rise while yesterday’s 1.3533 high holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2867-1.3121 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Regarding the intraday rise from yesterday’s 1.2986 low, this rise remains active as only a 2 hour open and close below 1.3324 will complete this rise while 1.3533 holds, as prices will then continue to move lower within a 1.3195-1.3324 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. For the session ahead, look to buy EURUSD ahead of 1.3324 for 1.3899 target.
GBPUSD’s corrective fall from the February 9, 2009 high of 1.4984 appears to be complete at the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653, as a daily open and close today above 1.4161 will complete this fall with prices then continuing to move higher within a 1.4161-1.4476 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. However, to firm the upside potential, prices will need to close today above 1.4281 to favor further price extension targeting the daily 55 EMA currently at 1.4406 as of this writing. As to the short term rise from the March 11, 2009 low of 1.3653, this rise remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.4073 will complete this rise while yesterday’s 1.4333 high holds. For the session ahead, a 2 hour open and close above 1.4303 will see further upside price extension with 1.4406 as the objective.
We will have a detailed market outlook for EURUSD, GBPUSD, DJIA and Gold after Friday’s close.
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