April 3rd, 2009

EURUSD’s short term active wave from the March 19, 2009 high of 1.3738 is complete at the March 30, 2009 low of 1.3114 as prices have moved within the 1.3352-1.3504 consolidation zone.  Now that prices have moved within the above mentioned zone, a sustained break outside the 1.3352-1.3504 zone will see further price extension in the direction of the brreak with 1.3590 and 1.3738 as the initial upside targets while the to the downside 1.3260 and 1.3113 represent initial downside targets.  The medium term outlook continues to favor narrowing price range with trendline resistance from the December 18, 2008 high coming in at 1.3600 while trendline support from the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 coming in at 1.3230.  As to the broad outlook, ONLY a monthly open and close above 1.4194 will complete the downside correction while the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328 holds, with further upside price extension to follow.  However, until prices close above 1.4194 the broad outlook risk.