March 22nd, 2010
EURUSD’s fall from the January 13, 2010 high of 1.4579 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3871 will complete this fall while the March 2, 1010 low of 1.3433 holds. Prices reached 1.3817 last week as this was a few pips shy of the our 1.3878 target sited in our March 1, 2010 update. As to the short fall from the March 17, 2010 high of 1.3817, this fall remains active as ONLY a 2 hour open and close above 1.3623 will complete this fall. For the week ahead, look to sell EURUSD within the 1.3622-1.3660 zone for 1.3433 initial target.
March 14th, 2010
EURUSD’s medium term fall from the January 13, 2010 high of 1.4579 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3871 will complete this fall while the March 2, 2010 low of 1.3433 holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.3871-1.4141 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have moved with the sited consolidation zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. The medium term outlook favors further downside risk with a weekly open and close below 1.3482 favors significant downside risk with 1.3089, 1.2885 and 1.2455 as the objective in the weeks ahead. As to the near term corrective rise from 1.3433, this rise remains active as ONLY a 4 hour open and close below 1.3662 will complete this rise while Friday’s 1.3796 caps.
For the session ahead, look to buy EURUSD within the 1.3640-1.3700 zone, stop loss below 1.3600 for 1.3796 followed by 1.3871 targets.
Long Term Trade Recommendation: Sell EURUSD within 1.3871-1.4006 zone with stop loss above 1.4086 for 1.3433,1.3089, and 1.2885 targets.
GBPUSD medium term outlook remains offered as the fall from the January 19, 2010 high of 1.6457 continues to unfold as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5422 will complete this fall while the March 1, 2010 low of 1.4782 holds. A daily open and close above 1.5422 will see prices continue to move higher within a 1.5422-1.5817 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. The medium term and broad term outlook continue to favor further downside risk as a WEEKLY open and close below 1.4948 favoring significant downside extension is underway with 1.4453 followed 1.3653 as the next objectives. As to the broad outlook, a monthly open and close below 1.3653 will solicit dramatic collapse in GBPUSD with prices targeting 1.0345 in the months ahead.
XAUUSD, (Spot Gold) rise from the April 2009 low of 864.06 is complete at the December 3, 2009 high of 1,226.36 as prices have now moved within the 1,002.46-1,140.86 consolidation zone as a weekly open and close outside this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. Near term risk suggest prices will move lower in the days ahead within a 1,067.93-1.106.36 zone before another attempt to the upside.
March 7th, 2010
EURUSD fall from the January 13, 2010 high of 1.4579 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3871 will complete this fall while last week’s 1.3433 low holds. As to the downside, a daily open and close below 1.3482 will confirm resumption of the downside extension with 1.3030 followed by 1.2885 as the next objective.
Short Term Trade Recommendation: For the session ahead, look to buy EURUSD within the 1.3568-1.3595 zone with stop loss below 1.3529 for 1.3656, 1.3735, 1.3778 and 1.3871 targets.
Long Term Trade Recommendation: Sell EURUSD within the 1.3871-1.4006 zone with stop loss above 1.4086 for 1.3433, 1.3030 and 1.2885 targets.
GBPUSD fall from the January 19, 2010 high remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5422 will complete this fall while the March 1, 2010 low of 1.4782 holds. A daily open and close above 1.5422 will see further price extension to the upside within a 1.5422-1.5817 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. As to the recent rise from the March 1, 2010 low of 1.4782, this corrective wave remains active as ONLY a daily close below 1.5019 will complete this fall with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.4928-1.5019 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Once prices have moved within the sited consolidation zone, a sustained break of this consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.
March 1st, 2010
EURUSD moved higher last week as was my forecast with nearterm risk for further rise towards 1.3788 while 1.3548 supports. However, the February monthly close suggest further downside extension will unfold in March with 1.3089 as the next objective while prices remain below 1.4093. Our sited target for the week of Feb. 14 was 1.3418 as prices reached 1.3444, thus. a daily open and close below this level will firm the outlook for 1.3089. For the week ahead, EURUSD remains in a near term consolidation pattern as risk for further rise 1.3788 followed by 1.3878 remains while prices hold above 1.3548. Look for opportunity to sell EURUSD ahead of 1.3878 for 1.3089 in the weeks ahead.
GBPUSD remains offered as has been my forecast for several weeks with 1.4854 as the next objective. The medium term fall from the January 19, 2010 high of 1.6457 remains acive as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5615 will complete this fall with prices then contnuing to move higher within a 1.5615-1.5937 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
