February 21st, 2010

FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 21-26, 2010
EURUSD
EURUSD continued to move lower last week as our forecast targeted 1.3418 with prices reaching 1.3444, a few pips shy of our objective.

The BROAD OUTLOOK at this juncture remains corrective as the rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.2885 is complete at November 2009 high of 1.5143, with prices currently sustained below the 1.3748-1.4280 previously sited consolidation zone. A previously sited, a daily open and close below 1.3748 will see further downside extension as we saw this unfold last week, but at this juncture daily prices will need to open and close below 1.3418 to confirm further downside extension targeting the April 22, 2009 low of 1.2885. As to the upside, ONLY a daily open and close above 1.4092 will complete the corrective fall from the November 2009 high of 1.5143 while last weeks 1.3444 low holds, as price will then continue to move higher within a 1.4092-1.4492 consolidation zone .

As to the MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK, the fall from the January 13, 2010 high of 1.4579 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3878 will complete this fall while last weeks 1.3444 low holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.3878-1.4145 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. As always the case, once prices have moved within the sited consolidation zone, a sustained break of the sited consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.

The SHORT TERM fall from the February 17, 2010 high of 1.3788 is complete at 1.3444, as hourly prices have opened and closed within the 1.3525-1.3657 consolidation zone with risk for further consolidation within the above mentioned zone before another attempt to the downside. Failure to move back below 1.3525 will favor further rise with 1.3657 followed by 1.3786.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION Buy EURUSD within the 1.3510-1.3555 zone, stop loss below 1.3485 for 1.3878 initial target followed by 1.4011.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD continued to move lower last week as our forecast targeted 1.5407 with prices exceeding our target reaching 1.5345.

The BROAD OUTLOOK remains corrective as the rise from the April 22, 2009 low of 1.4396 is complete at the August 2009 high of 1.7042 as prices remain within the sited 1.5407-1.6031 consolidation zone.

As to the MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK, the active wave from the January 19, 2010 high of 1.6457 continues to unfold reaching 1.5345 last week and ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5770 will complete this fall while 1.5345 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.5770-1.6032 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.

The SHORT TERM OUTLOOK remains offered as the fall from the February 17, 2010 high of 1.5815 has reached 1.5345 as ONLY a 2 hour open and close above 1.3525 will complete this fall while 1.5345 holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.5525-1.5635 consolidation zone.

AUDUSD
AUDUSD continued to move higher last week reaching .9036, a few pips shy of our .9042 target sited in our February 14, 2010 update.

The BROAD OUTLOOK remains corrective as the fall from the January 2010 high of .9329 is complete at the February 5, 2010 low of .8577, as prices have moved within the .8864-.9042 consolidation zone. Look for a daily open and close outside this zone to witness further price extension in the direction of the break.

Both the MEDIUM TERM and SHORT TERM OUTLOOK remain bid as the rise from .8577 remains active as ONLY a 2 hour open and close below .8861 will complete this rise while .9036 caps, as prices will continue to move lower within a .8752-.8861 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION Look to buy AUDUSD within the .8806-.8861 zone, with stop loss below .8752 for 9042 followed by .9152 target.

February 14th, 2010

EURUSD has reached our initial 1.3748 target sited in our January 30, 2010 update with prices continuing to move lower towards our next objective 1.3418.  As to the fall from the January 13, 2010 high of 1,4579, this wave remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3931 will complete the fall while last weeks low of 1.3531 holds. A daily open and close above 1.3931 will see prices contune to move higher within a 1.3931- 1.4179 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.

GBPUSD closed last week higher as the nearterm outlook favors further upside extension but the broad outlook risk remains for prices to continue to move lower with 1.5407 as the next objective while  1.5886 caps.  However,  a 2 hour open and close above 1.5738 will see further price extension to the upside towards 1.5886 before another attempt to the downside. As to the fall from  the January 19, 2010 high of 1.6457, this fall remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5886 will complete this fall while the  February 8, 2010 low of 1.5522 holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.5886-1.6184 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.

AUDUSD also closed last week higher with risk for further upside extension in the days ahead with 0.8953-0.9042 as the next objectives while  0.8788 holds.  ONLY a 4 hour open and close below 0.8788 will favor further downside risk with 0.8708 followed by 0.8577 as the next objectives.

Spot Gold broad outlook remains bid as ONLY a weekly open and close below 1018 will favor further downside extension within a 889.30-1018.42 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Once prices have moved within the above sited consolidation zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.  As to the current corrective fall from the December 3, 2009 high of 1,226.38, this wave remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1,113.79 will complete this fall while the February 5, 2010 low of 1,046.20 holds.

DJIA broad outlook remains bearsih as the rise from the March 2009 low of 6,466.00 is  corrective of the 14,192-6,466 fall, as ONLY a weekly open and close above 11.241.0 will eliminate the braod bearish outlook.  As to the corrective rise from March 2009 low of 6466. prices have moved within the previously sited 9417-11,241 consolidation zone as a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. The corrective rise from 6,466 remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close below 9,096 will complete this rise while the January 2010 high of  10,722 holds. Once below 9096, prices will then continue to move lower within a 8,091-9.096 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As always the case, once prices have moved within a sited consolidation zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.

SP500 Index remains in a corrective rise of the 1,575-665 fall as prices have currently moved within the previously sited 1013-1228 consolidation zone. The broad outlook remains bearish as a sustained break of the 1013-1228 zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.   However, the corrective rise from 665 remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close below 965 will complete this rise while the January 2010 high of 1,151.45 holds, as prices will then continue to move lower within a 851-965 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.