EURUSD’s short term fall from the Februry 23, 2009 high of 1.2990 remains active as only a 2 hour open and close above 1.2659 will complete the fall while the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2659-1.2786 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have sustained above 1.2659, then a break of the above mentioned consolidation zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break with 1.2589 as the initial downside target while 1.2876 as the initial upside target. Regarding the medium term fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, this wave remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3319 will complete this fall while the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have moved within the above mentioned consolidation zone, any sustained break of the 1.3319-1.3854 zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the session ahead, intraday risk favors the upside with 1.2723 as the initial target while 1.2640 holds.
GBPUSD fall from yesterday’s 1.4180 high remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.3909 will complete this fall while yesterday’s low of 1.3742 holds. Medium and long term risk clearly remains to the downside after eight consecutive months of lower closing prices while the February 2009 close of 1.4311 was the lowest monthly close since March 2002. Though February prices closed well above the 1.3502 low witnessed in January of this year, the move lower over the last few months has been the most explosive move in GBPUSD since 1992 with potential for 1.0345 in the months ahead. A March close below 1.4 together with a April open below 1.4 and a close below 1.35 will firm up the outlook that GBPUSD will contunue to move lower in the months with the 1985 low of 1.0345 as the objective.
We will have additional updates posted as needed. RW
EURUSD’s fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3319 will complete this fall while the March 4, 2009 low of 1.2455 holds. A daily open and close above 1.3319 will see prices continue to move higher within a 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. As to the intraday outlook, the short term rise from the March 5, 2009 low of 1.2481 remains active with 1.2786 as the next objective, however, a 2 hour open and close below 1.2649 will complete this rise while the March 6, 2009 high of 1.2753 caps, with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.2585-1.2649 consolidation zone before another attempt to the updside.
EURUSD fall from the February 23, 2009 high of 1.2990 remains active as only a daily close above 1.2659 will complete this fall while 1.2455 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2659-1.2786 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have closed on a daily basis within the above mentioned zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the medium term outlook, the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.3319 will complete this fall while 1.2455 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3319-1.3854 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
GBPUSD long term outlook remains firmly to the downside after eight consecutive months of lower closing prices and February 2009 close of 1.4311, the lowest monthly close since March 2002. Though February prices closed well above the 1.3502 low witnessed in January of this year, the move lower over the last few months has been the most explosive move witnessed in GBPUSD since 1992, as this was our August 18, 2008 and August 26, 2008 forecast. (please read) Dring the 1992 fall, GBPUSD fell from 2.0100 to 1.4063 in 6 months. Similarly, the current move lower began July 2008 at 2.0155 and reached 1.3502 January 2009, a few pips below our August 26, 2008 forecast. Since 1992, GBPUSD has made 3 attempts to sustain prices below 1.4 but was unable to do so as 1.4 has essentially limited the downside on GBPUSD since Septemeber 1985. A monthly open and close below 1.4 would be a very bearish event and confirm prices will continue to move much lower targeting the 1985 low of 1.0345. However, daily and weekly studies are showing early signs that a correction may soon unfold, but until monthly prices can open and close above 1.5475, the broad outlook favors the downside. Corrections to the upside have been limited to the daily 55 EMA which has capped prices since August 2008. As of this writing, the daily 55 EMA comes in at 1.4560 while trendline resistance from the December 2008 high comes in at 1.4450 as of this writing. A daily open and close above 1.4700 would indicate that prices are likely to continue to move higher with a 1.5 and 1.5475 as the objectives. As to the short term fall from the February 23, 2009 high of 1.4660, this fall remains active as only a daily close above 1.4225 will complete this fall while 1.3956 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.4225-1.4391 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have closed on a daily basis within the above mentioned zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break.
We will have a detailed outllook for the week ahead after today’s close.
EURUSD short term wave from the February 25, 2009 high at 1.2898 remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.2675 will complete this fall while yesterday’s 1.2537 low holds, as prices will then move within a 1.2675-1.2760 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have entered the above mentioned zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the long term outlook, no change here as only a weekly open and close above 1.3355 will complete the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 while the February 18, 2009 low of 1.2512 holds.
EURUSD closed February at 1.2665, the lowest monthly close since April 2006, as the long term outlook remains firmly to the downside while prices remain below 1.3355. A weekly open and close below 1.2583 confirms further downside extenison with the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328 as the next objective followed by the November 2005 low of 1.1642. The short term or intraday outlook also has room for further downside extension with a daily close below 1.2612 firming up the outlook for lower prices in the days ahead. As to the upside, trendline resistance from the February 23, 2009 high of 1.2990 comes in today around 1.2730, with a 1 hour open and close above this level confirming further intraday extension to the upside targeting 1.2810 followed by 1.2871. Above 1.3 will see an increase in upside momentum and volume with risk for 1.3355. However, until a weekly open and close above 1.3355, the broad trend remains down.
GBPUSD long term outlook remains firmly to the downside after eight consecutive months of lower closing prices and February 2009 close of 1.4311, the lowest monthly close since March 2002. Though February prices closed well above the 1.3502 low witnessed in January of this year, the move lower over the last few months has been the most explosive move witnessed in GBPUSD since 1992, as during that year GBPUSD fell from 2.0100 to 1.4063 in 6 months. Similarly, the current move lower began July 2008 at 2.0155 and reached 1.3502 January 2009, a few pips below our forecast on August 26, 2008 for GBPUSD to target 1.3682. (Please read) Since 1992, GBPUSD has made 3 attempts to sustain prices below 1.4 but was unable to do so as 1.4 has essentially limited the downside on GBPUSD since Septemeber 1985. A monthly open and close below 1.4 would be a very bearish event and confirm prices will continue to move much lower targeting the 1985 low of 1.0345. However, daily and weekly studies are showing early signs that a correction may soon unfold, but until monthly prices can open and close above 1.5475, the broad outlook favors the downside. Corrections to the upside have been limited to the daily 55 EMA which has capped prices since August 2008. As of this writing, the daily 55 EMA comes in at 1.4647 while trendline resistance from the December 2008 high comes in at 1.4697. A daily open and close above 1.4700 would indicate that prices are likely to continue to move higher with a 1.5 and 1.5475 as the objectives. Again, the trend remains firmly to the downside.
AUDUSD’s broad trend favors further downside risk as only a monthly open and close above 0.7474 will complete the fall from 0.9850 while the October 2008 low of 0.6006 holds. Once above 0.7474, prices will then move within a 0.7474-0.8232 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Weekly studies continue to favor further downside risk while daily studies finds trendline support from the October 27, 2008 low at 0.6006 coming in at 0.6335 as of this writing to hold. Intraday studies also continue to point down as last Friday’s fall from 0.6552 reached trendline support at 0.6338 before a correction unfolded. Look for intraday prices to trade within a 0.6392-0.6470 consolidation zone with a sustained break of this zone witnessing further price extension in the direction of the break.
DJIA-Risk remains firmly to the downside as 7000 support is the next line in the sand. Bids ahead of this level should hold, but a sustained break here will see longs cover and prices continue to move lower. A monthly open and close below 7000 will see further downside extension towards 5500 support.
As to the upside, ONLY a monthly open and close above 9812 while 7000 supports will eliminate the downside risk. Above 9812 will see prices continue to move higher within a 9812-11,942 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have moved within the 9812-11,942 consolidation zone, a sustained break of this zone will see further price extension in the direction of the break. Again, risk remains firmly to the downside, with the last test of 7000 support occurring in 1997, as this level was strong resistance in 1996-1997 and subsequently support once breached. Additionally, the last significant fall from the 1999 highs around 11,500 took 38 months to reach 7300, whereas the current fall from above 14,000 has essentially reached 7000 in a mere 16 months. Momentum clearly favors further downside risk.
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