EURUSD continues to consolidate within the recent 1.2512-1.2990 rise with trendline resistance off the 1.2990 high coming in today at 1.2851 while trendline support off the 1.2512 low comes in at 1.2689. As to the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, this fall remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.3355 will complete this fall while 1.2512 holds. Look for a break of the above mentioned trendlines to see further extension in the direction of the break as a breakeout will occur will within the next 3 days.
GBPUSD intraday fall from yesterday’s 1.4606 high remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.4330 will complete this fall while 1.4160 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.4330-1.4436 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Assuming prices enter the above mentioned zone, look for a sustained break of the above mentioned zone to see further extension in the direction of the break. Look for intraday resistance at 1.4290 to initially limit the upside as prices as a failure here suggest prices to move lower with a break of yesterdays low targeting 1.3819. As to the broad outlook, risk remains firmly to the downside with the fall from the September 25, 2008 high of 1.8666 remaining active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5475 will complete this fall while 1.3502 holds.
EURUSD has sustained above descending trendline support from the December 29, 2008 high of 1.4363, which comes in today at 1.2663, as this level limited yesterday’s fall favoring a move higher in the days ahead. Additionally, minor trendline resistance from the January 28, 2009 high of 1.3328 comes in today at 1.2828, with prices currently trading at 1.2845, as hourly studies favor further upside extension towards Monday’s 1.2990 high. Look for prices to move higher in the sessions ahead while 1.2707 supports, with a susatained break of 1.3000 targeting the February 9, 2009 high of 1.3092 and eventually 1.3355. As to the fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, this fall remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3355 will complete this fall at the February 18, 2009 low of 1.2512, with prices then continuing to move higher within a 1.3355-1.3875 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. For the session ahead, look to buy EURUSD at 1.2794 with stop loss below 1.2744 for 1.3355 target in the days ahead.
EURUSD rallied late US session Friday reaching descending trendline resistance from the January 28, 2009 high which comes in at 1.2853 as of this writing. A daily open and close above 1.2824 will see prices continue to move intially towards 1.3016. As to the medium term fall from the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718, ONLY a weekly close above 1.3355 will complete the medium term fall at the February 18, 2009 low of 1.2512, with prices then moving within a 1.3355-1.3875 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. The broad outlook favors further downside risk as a monthly close below 1.2689 confirms prices will continue to move lower with the November 2005 low of 1.1642 as the next objective.
GBPUSD intraday risk remains to the upside with 1.4644 as the next objective while a daily open and close above this level will see further upside extension towards 1.4789 followed by the February 2009 high of 1.4984. As to the downside, a daily open and close below 1.4246 will see further downside extension towards 1.4033 and beyond. As to the broad outlook, risk clearly remains to the downside with a monthly close below 1.3952 confirming prices will continue to move lower with 1.2825 as the next objective and eventually the 1985 low 1.0345. However, a monthly close above 1.4539 favors favors further upside correction before another attempt to the downside.
EURUSD broke trendline support on Tuesday as prices continued to move lower reaching 1.2512 yesterday. This rising trendline from the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2338, now resistance, comes in today around 1.2750 today. Look for a retest of this level as a daily close above suggest prices will continue to move higher with 1.2981 as the next objective. As to the corrective rise from the February 18, 2009 low of 1.2512, only a daily close below 1.2662 will complete this rise with prices subsequently moving into a 1.2602-1.2662 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the medium term outlook, EURUSD’s fall from the December 12, 2008 high of 1.4718 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3355 will complete this fall while 1.2512 holds, as prices will then continue to move higher within a 1.3355-1.3875 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
GBPUSD fall from the February 9, 2009 high at 1.4984 reached a low of 1.4093 on February 18, 2009, as a daily open and close above 1.4433 will complete this fall at 1.4093 with prices subsequently moving higher within a 1.4433-1.4644 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. As to the active corrective rise from yesterday’s 1.4093 low, only a daily close below 1.4311 will complete this rise with prices then continuing to move lower within a 1.4228-1.4311 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.
We will have further update after Friday’s close. RW
EURUSD broke below the lower daily trendline support from the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328 as a daily open and close below 1.2777 will see prices continue to move lower towards 1.2328. As mentioned in the August 21, 2008 outlook,(please read), the broad outlook continues to favor a retest of the November 2005 low at 1.1642 with a weekly open and close below 1.2583 confirming prices will continue to move lower with 1.1642 as the objective. Intraday, look for prices to find intial resistance around 1.2721 before another attempt to the downside.
EURUSD continues to see lower daily highs and higher daily lows with a breakout imminent within the next few days. Rising trendline support comes in at 1.2790 today while to the upside, descending trendline resistence comes in at 1.2963. The convergence of the two above mentioned trendlines occurrs in 7 days at which time a breakout must occurr. To the upside, look for a daily open and close above 1.2963 to favor further upside potential with 1.3208 as the initial target while to the downside, a daily open and close below 1.2790 will see prices continue lower towards 1.2626 followed by 1.2553. However, divergence with daily oscillators suggest downside momentum is waining for now and will need to be watched closely in the days ahead.
GBPUSD corrective rise from the January 23, 2009 low at 1.3502 is complete at 1.4984. as prices have since moved within the 1.4068-1.4418 consolidation zone. To the upside, a daily open and close above 1.4614 will see further upside extension intially targeting the daily 55 EMA currently at 1.4797 followed by descending trendline resistance currently at 1.4919, while to the downside, a daily open and close below 1.3819 will see further downside risk towards the 2009 low at 1.3502.
EURUSD remains is a medium term consolidation phase of the 1.4718-1.2705 fall witnessed from December 18, 2008 -February 2, 2009, with a daily open and close above 1.3223 confirming further upside extension with 1.3474 as the next objective. As to the downside, ONLY a daily open AND close below 1.2839 will confirm further downside risk targeting 1.2705 followed by 1.2435. Intraday, prices are attempting to correct higher with a 1 hour open and close above 1.2918 will see prices continue to move higher towards 1.2984 before another attempt to the downside, whereas above 1.2984 favors further upside extension towards 1.3032.
GBPUSD medium term risk remains to the downside as intraday prices continue to consolidate the 1.8666-1.3502 fall. ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5475 will complete this fall while 1.3502 holds, with prices then continuing to move higher towards 1.6084. Intraday, prices have moved higher recently testing resistance at the daily 55 EMA currently at 1.4845, with prices remaining below the daily 55 EMA since July 29, 200. A daily open and close above this level favors further upside risk with 1.5475 as the next objective. As to the downside, look for a daily close below 1.4068 to remove upside risk with prices then continuing to move lower targeting 1.3819 as the next objective.
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