EURUSD reached 1.4365 yesterday, a few pips shy of our 1.4376 target. However, prices failed to close on the day above 1.4165 which would have confirmed the outlook for higher prices in the days ahead. No change in our outlook, as a daily close above 1.4165 will favor further upside potential in the days ahead with a retest of the December 18, 2008 high of 1.4718 likely, while a sustained break targets the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866. To the downside, a daily open and close below 1.3800 will see prices continue to move lower within a 1.3241-1.3800 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside.
EURUSD reached 1.4718 on December 18, 2008 and subsequently corrected to 1.3823, a few pips beyond the 38.2% of the 1.2423-1.4781 rise. Daily charts continue to favor more upside potential with a daily close above 1.4165 today targeting 1.4270 and 1.4376 as the next objectives. To the downside, a sustained break below 1.3823 suggest further downside risk towards 1.3300 before another push to the upside.
EURUSD’s active wave from the November 20, 2008 low of 1.2423 reached 1.4718 yesterday in what appears to be a medium term impulsive rally, as any correction to the downside should remain above 1.3300 so as to support this outlook. A daily close below 1.3300 will eliminate the impulsive outlook and suggest a much broader correction of the 1.6037-1.2328 fall had unfolded with continued risk to the downside likely in the weeks and months ahead. As to the current fall from yesterday’s 1.4718 high, a sustained move back above 1.4545 will confim the rise has once again resumed targeting yesterdays 1.4718 high followed by the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866. Intraday, look for initial offers ahead of 1.4060, whereas a sustained break of 1.4060 will suggeest further upside risk.
EURUSD has sustained above 1.3896 as prices continued to move higher reaching 1.4191 during today’s Asian session. Prices have now moved within a broad 1.3745-1.4620 consolidation zone, as a daily close above 1.4183 will see further upside towards 1.4620, while a daily close below 1.3745 will see further downside towards 1.3479. As to the rise from the October 13, 2008 low at 1.2387, this rise remains active as ONLY a daily close below 1.3502 will complete this rise while today’s Asian session high of 1.4191 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3076-1.3502 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. Intraday, look for firm support ahead of 1.3976 as a 2 hour open and close below this level will see further downside risk with potential for 1.3842 while to the upside a 1 hour open and close back above 1.4104 will see further extension towards 1.4183 and beyond.
EURUSD continues the corrective phase from the October 28, 2008 low at 1.2328, as the fall from the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866 is complete at 1.2328, with prices now trading within the previously mentioned 1.3298-1.3896 consolidation zone. Risk for further upside potential remains, with 1.3896 as the next objective, however, ONLY above 1.3896 would suggest the move up from 1.2328 is more impulsive than corrective favoring further upside potential. Intraday risk favors USD buying while prices sustain below 1.3700 with 1.3619 as the intial target, h0wever risk for choppy intraday price action remains high until FOMC rate decision later today.
EURUSD corrective rise reached 1.3404 yesterday as a daily close above 1.3298 today will complete the fall from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866 at the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328, with prices then moving within a 1.3298-1.3896 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the short term rise from the December 4, 2008 low at 1.2549, this rise remains active as ONLY a daily close below 1.3078 will complete this corrective rise with prices then moving within a 1.2875-1.3078 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the medium term outlook, ONLY a daily close below 1.2558 suggest prices are again moving lower with the October 28, 2008 of 1.2328 as the next objective followed by 1.2132.
EURUSD remains in a medium term consolidation phase with trendline resistance from the October 30, 2008 high of 1.3298 coming in at 1.2955 today, while to the downside trendline support from the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2328 comes in today at 1.2500. A daily close above or below these trendlines will see further extension in the direction of the break. As to the broad outlook, the fall from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3298 will complete this fall while 1.2328 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3298-1.3896 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Intraday, look for minor support at 1.2900 with a 2 hour open and close below 1.2900 suggesting further downside risk.
GBPUSD also remains in a nearterm consolidation phase since the December 4, 2008 low at 1.4467, with a sustained break of 1.4467 targeting 1.3682. To the upside, trendline resistance from the September 25, 2008 high of 1.8666 comes in today at 1.5036, as a daily open and close above 1.5036 will see further upside extension towards 1.5517, as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5517 completing the fall from 1.8666 at 1.4467, with prices then moving into a 1.5517-1.6567 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Intraday, look for a 2 hour open and close below 1.4793 to confirm further downside risk towards 1.4717 with a daily close below 1.4550 favoring further down side extension.
We will have further updates on Friday or earlier should closing prices break the meduim term consolidation phase. RW
EURUSD continues the medium term consolidation phase since reaching the 1.2328 low on October 28, 2008, as risk remains for further downside targeting 1.2132 followed by the November 2005 low at 1.1642. Daily trendline support comes in today at 1.2451 as a daily open and close close below 1.2400 will firm up the move towards 1.2132. As to the upside, a 2 hour open and close above 1.2705 will see further upside as prices will then move within a 1.2705-1.2801 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside, however, sustained prices above 1.2966 favors 1.3298.
EURUSD remains in a consolidation phase since reaching the 1.2328 low on October 28, 2008 with daily trendline support coming in at 1.2445 as of this writing, No change in the medium term outlook as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.3298 will complete the fall from the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866 while 1.2328 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3298-1.3896 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the intraday outlook, prices remain within a 1.2620-1.2700 range as a sustained break of this range, such a as 15 minute open and close outside this range will see further intraday extension in the direction of the break, with 1.2748 as the initial upside intraday target, while 1.2565 as the initial downside intraday target.
GBPUSD reached a low of 1.4557 in November, below our 1.5282 target but still short of our 1.3682 objective. The broad term risk remains to the downside while prices hold below 1.6127, however, a daily open and close above 1.6127 will complete the fall from the September 25, 2008 high at 1.8666 while 1.4557 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.6127-1.7096 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Intraday, a daily open and close below 1.5215 will complete the short term rise from the November 21, 2008 low at 1.4699, with prices then moving within a 1.5018-1.5215 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the upside. However, a daily close above 1.5324 will see further extension to the upside initially targeting 1.5461 followed by 1.5534, while to the downside a daily close below 1.5018 will see further downside risk toward 1.4878.
"The views and opinions contained in the content of this website are sole property of the blog owner and participants. The statements made are based on analysis and predictions and have no definitive outcome on the Forex Market. Forex trading and the high degree of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains."
