EURUSD’s corrective rise from Wednesday’s 1.2328 low has reached the 1.3298 target mentioned in our previous update, however, as previously mentioned, only a daily open and close above 1.3298 will complete the fall from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866 while 1.2328 holds. As to the current corrective rise from 1.2328, this wave remains active and only a daily close below 1.2926 will complete this rise while 1.3298 holds, as price will then move within a 1.2697-1.3298 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the upside. The medium and broad term trend clearly remains to the downside with a monthly close below 1.2672 targeting the November 2005 low at 1.1642.
EURUSD made a dramatic move to the upside during yesterday’s late US session as Wednesday’s daily close at 1.2805 suggest risk for further upside targeting 1.3298, however, a daily close above 1.2962 is needed to add further confirmation to this outlook. The medium and broad trend firmly remains to the downside with any move to the upside as a correction of the prevailing medium and broad trend. As to the intraday rise from the October 28, 2008 low of 1.2326, this rise remains active as only a 1 hour open and close below 1.2646 will complete this rise while 1.2842 caps, as prices will then move within a 1.2524-1.2646 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the upside, while below 1.2449 confirms the fall from the September 19, 2008 high at 1.4866 has once again resumed. As to the fall from 1.4866, only a daily open and close above 1.3298 will complete this fall while 1.2326 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3298-1.3896 consolidation zone before wave 5 to the downside targeting 1.2326 and beyond.
GBPUSD short term rise from the October 27, 2008 low of 1.5274 has reached 1.6217 as only a 1 hour open and close below 1.5857 will complete this rise at 1.6217 with prices then moving within a 1.5634-1.5857 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the upside targeting 1.6572, whereas a sustained break below 1.5497 confirms the medium term fall from the September 25, 2008 high at 1.8666 is once again underway targeting 1.5274 and beyond. As to the medium term fall from 1.8666, only a daily open and close above 1.6572 will complete this fall while 1.5274 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.6572-1.7371 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the downside. Intraday, look for to move above 1.6147 to confirm the rise from 1.5274 has once again resumed with 1.6572 as the objective. However, any moves to the upside are merely corrective as the medium and broad term trends firmly remains to the downside.
EURUSD’s dramatic fall continues and has reached 1.2335 as of this writing. In our August 21, 2008 EURUSD update, we said “as with the medium term trend, there is risk for a much deeper correction in the broad outlook with prices targeting 1.3054 in the months ahead, as a monthly open and close below 1.3054 will suggest prices will continue to move lower within a 1.1210-1.3054 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the upside.” As of this writing, it appears that the risk for EURUSD is for a monthly close below 1.3054, and more imprtantly at this juncture, a monthly close below 1.2679 firmly suggest prices will continue to move much lower with the November 2005 low at 1.1642 as the next objective. As to the current fall from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866, only a monthly close above 1.3302 will take the pressure off the downside while 1.2335 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.3302-1.3899 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. Intra day, the fall from the September 24, 2008 high at 1.3004 remains active and only a daily close above 1.2591 will take the intra day pressure off the downside while 1.2335 holds, as prices will then trade within a 1.2591-1.2748 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
EURUSD has reached a low of 1.2726 during late US session Wednesday, just 15 pips shy of the 1.2711 target mentioned in the October 6, 2008 update. As to the current fall from this week’s 1.3529 high, only a daily close above 1.3033 will complete this fall while 1.2726 holds, as prices will subsequently move within a 1.3033-1.3223 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside, while a sustained move above 1.3340 will suggest prices to continue higher with this weeks 1.3529 high as the objective. With regard to the fall from the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866, only a daily open and close above 1.3543 will complete the fall while 1.2726 holds, with prices then moving within a 1.3543-1.4049 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Risk remains to the downside with 1.2679 followed by the Novermber 2005 low of 1.1642 the next objectives.
GBPUSD reached the 1.6539 objective and went as low as 1.6134 on Wednesday with potential for further downside risk targeting 1.5447 and eventually 1.3682 in the months ahead. As to the current active wave from this week’s 1.7510 high, only a daily close above 1.6662 will complete this fall while 1.6134 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.6662-1.6988 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. With regard to the fall from the September 25, 2008 high at 1.8666, only a daily open and close above 1.7101 will complete this fall while 1.6134 holds, as prices with then move within a 1.7101-1.7699 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the downside.
EURUSD reached 1.3054 during today’s late US session as this was our forecast sited in the August 21, 2008-8:00 GMT update. On August 21, 2008 we wrote “ But as to the next potential move to the downside, this move will be explosive as supported by high volume and strong momentum, as such a move will initially target 1.4358. Similarly, as with the medium term trend, there is risk for a much deeper correction in the broad outlook with prices targeting 1.3054 in the months ahead, as a monthly open and close below 1.3054 will suggest prices will continue to move lower within a 1.1210-1.3054 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the upside.”
At the time we wrote the above outlook the market sentiment was very bearish US dollar with many well respected analyst at the time still targeting a 1.7 and higher for EURUSD in the weeks to follow. However, our interpretation of pattern recognition, closing prices, trend dynamics and current market sentiment strongly suggested that prices were about to move lower in what would be an ”explosive” and “dramatic” move to the downside. And as history has now proven, our mid August outlook and forecast was spot on correct. Risk firmly remains to the downside as any moves to the upside will be corrective and provide opportunity to establish new short postions for potential fall to 1.1210 in the weeks ahead.
EURUSD reached 1.3258 last week, a few pips beyond the 1.3321 target mentioned in our August 21 update, as intraday studies suggest further upside potential towards 1.3660 as prices moved to 1.3623 in early Asian session today. Look for initial bids ahead the 38.2% of the intraday 1.3258-1.3623 rise, while to the downside, below 1.3414 will suggest prices will continue lower towards Friday’s 1.3258 low, as a sustained break targets our next objective at 1.3054. As to the fall from the September 22, 2008 high at 1.4866, only a daily open and close above 1.3872 will complete the fall, with prices then moving within a 1.3872-1.4252 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 all time high at 1.6037, only a daily open and close above 1.4320 will complete this fall while 1.3258 holds, as prices will then continue to move higher with 1.4648 as the next objective before attempting another move to the downside. As to the broad outlook from the October 2000 low at 0.8227, the trend remains up as only a monthly open and close below 1.3054 will complete this rise at 1.6037, with prices then likely to move within a 1.1210-1.3054 zone before attempting another move to the upside. A daily close today above 1.3557 will suggest risk for further upside potential in the days ahead, whereas close below 1.3400 suggest further downside risk towards 1.3054.
GBPUSD medium term fall from the September 25, 2008 high at 1.8666 has reached 1.6761, well beyond our 1.7048 target mentioned in the August 18, 2008 update and shy of our next objective at 1.6539. Intraday prices have moved to 1.7159 in today’s early asian session with initial bids are likely ahead of the 38.2% of the 1.6791-1.7159 rise at 1.7056, with a sustained break below 1.6955 suggesting prices are likely to continue lower towards 1.6860 followed by 1.6761. To the upside, a 1 hour open and close above 1.7164 suggest prices will continue to move higher with 1.7252 and 1.7395 as the objectives.
EURUSD reached 1.3442 low on Monday, as the outlook remains for 1.3054 target mentioned in our August 21, 2008 8:00 GMT update (please read). As to the intra day outlook, prices are consolidating from Monday’s 1.3442 low as a 2 hour open and close below 1.3559 confims prices are once again moving lower with 1.3442, 1.3321 and 1.3054 as the objective. As to the medium term outlook, the fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037 remains active as the pair is currently in an impulsive wave 3 from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866 with our projected wave 3 extension targeting 1.2711. However, a daily close above 1.3986 will complete the fall from 1.4866 while 1.3442 holds, as prices will then likely trade within a 1.3986-1.4322 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the broad outlook, the trend remains up from the 2001 0.8227 low, as only a a monthly open and close below 1.3054 will complete the rise at the July 15th 2008 high of 1.6037, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.1210-1.3054 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the upside. I would like to empahsize that the trend intensity is very bullish USD as was my forecast since mid August, as the medium term rise from the November 2005 low of 1.1642 reached 1.6037 on July 15, 2008 and took 32 months in the process, while the fall from 1.6037 recovered more than 50% of this rise in a mere 4 months. Please read my June 25, August 18, 2008-7:00 GMT, August 21, 2008-8:00 GMT updates.
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EURUSD continues wave 3 down from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866, reaching 1.3549 as of this writing with 1.3321 as the next objective followed by 1.3054 and 1.2711. As to the upside, only a daily close above 1.4051 will complete the fall from 1.4866 with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4052-1.4363 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside targeting 1.3321. As to the short term fall from last Friday’s 1.3911 high, only a 1 hour open and close above 1.3687 will complete the short term fall from 1.3911 with prices then likely to trade within a 1.3687-1.3773 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037, only a daily open and close above 1.4499 will complete this fall with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4499-1.5087 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Intraday, look for initial offers ahead of 1.3687 to limit any nearterm rise with 1.3321 as the next objective. As to trading, trend dynamics continue to provide very favorable trading enviroment with 23 out of the last 24 weeks profitable and 109 winning days out of the last 114 trading days, with 6,317 pips banked since April 29th.
EURUSD has reached our 1.3840 objective as the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037 has once again resumed in what appears to be the early stages of an impulsive 3rd wave from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866, as prices should continue to move lower towards 1.3321 and eventually 1.3054 followed by 1.2711 in the weeks ahead. The wave 2 correction from the September 11, 2008 low of 1.3882 is complete at the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866, as the current active wave has reached a low of 1.3746 during yesterday’s US session and should continue to move lower while 1.4174 caps. As to the upside, the current fall from 1.4866 remains active as only a daily close above 1.4174 will complete this fall while 1.3746 holds, as prices will then move within a 1.4174-1.4438 consolidation zone before attempting anothet push to the downside.
EURUSD continues to move lower reaching 1.3911 during today’s Asian session, as prices should continue to move lower with the September 11, 2008 low at 1.3882 as the next objective with a susatined break eventually targeting 1.3054. However, failure to sustain prices below 1.3882 would suggest prices will likely remain a complex consolidation pattern It appears that a new wave lower from the September 22, 2008 high of 1.4866 is underway with potential for an explosive wave 3 extension
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