EURUSD continued to move lower last week as was our forecast, reaching 1.4194, well beyond our 1.4358 initial target sited in our August 12, 2008 update. Last month saw an unprecedented move lower in the EURUSD, as the pair dropped over 10 handles during the month of August and closed near the month’s lows. Never before has such a move ever been witnessed in the EURUSD, and not since the 1992 fall in the Deutsche Mark has there been such a move in a single month. Our outlook remains unchanged as risk remains for further downside as only a daily open and close above 1.4898 while 1.4194 holds will complete EURUSD’s fall from 1.6037 and suggest further consolidation before another attempt to the downside. As to the intra day outlook, a 1 hour open and close above 1.4429 will confirm the short term fall from the August 28 high at 1.4809 is complete at last week’s 1.4194 low, as prices will then subsequently trade within a 1.4429-1.4574 zone before another move to the downside with 1.4150 and 1.4014 as the next objectives.
EURUSD continues the dramatic move lower as was our forecast in the August 12, 2008 update, reaching 1.4212 during Thursday’s late US session, well beyond our 1.4358 initial target. EURUSD’s intra day fall will be complete at 1.4212 should prices close on a 1 hour basis above 1.4338, as the intra day outlook will then turn consolidative with prices likely to trade within a 1.4338-1.4417 zone before attempting another move lower. However, to the upside, a sustained break of 1.4465 will suggest further upside potential with prices moving towards 1.4555 before attempting another move to the downside. As to the downside, intra day targets are 1.4150, 1.4080, and 1.4014, with a sustained break of 1.4014 targeting 1.3987, 1.3830 and 1.3720. As to EURUSD’s medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, only a daily open and close above 1.4909 will complete the fall while 1.4212 holds, as prices will then turn consolidative with prices moving within a 1.4909-1.5340 zone before another attempt to the downside. The broad outlook from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 to the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037 is nearing completion, as only a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete this rise at 1.6037 with prices subsequently moving within a 1.4358-1.3321 zone before attempting another move to the upside. Please read our August 12 and August 21 EURUSD update. Also, we suggest reading our June 25, 2008 as this contains useful information for all who read.
GBPUSD continues to move lower from the July 15, 2008 high at 2.0155 with our previously mentioned 1.7421 and 1.7058 targets as our next objectives, reaching 1.7558 during Thursday’s late US session. as risk remains for further extension lower while 1.8536 limits any upside attempts. We will have a detailed outlook for EURUSD and GBPUSD after Friday’s close. Please read our August 26, 2008 GBPUSD update.
EURUSD reached a low of 1.4385 yesterday, just a few pips shy of our 1.4358 target sited in our August 12, 2008-8:00 GMT update. Nearterm, EURUSD is in a intra day corrective phase from the August 21, 2008 high at 1.4909, as a daily close above 1.4585 will complete the near term fall at yesterday’s 1.4385 low, with prices subsequently moving into a 1.4585-1.4708 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. The medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5016 will complete this fall while 1.4385 holds, as prices will then move into a 1.5016-1.5406 consolidation zone before attempting another downside move. As to the broad outlook, the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete this rise while 1.6037 holds, with prices subsequently moving into a 1.4358-1.3321 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the upside. Intra day, continue to look for more upside potential while prices hold above 1.4483, as 1 hour open and close below 1.4483 will suggest further consolidation within a 1.4445-1.4483 intra day consolidation zone with a sustained break back above 1.4505 confirming the intra day corrective rise is once again underway, while to the downside, a 1 hour open and close below 1.4422 favors further downside extension with 1.4358 as the next objective. For the session ahead, favor buying dips for a 1.4585 initial target.
GBPUSD trend remains firmly to the downside with 1.7421 and 1.7058 as the next objective. As to the near term fall from the August 21, 2008 high at 1.8793, prices have since reached 1.7664 yesterday with GBPUSD currently in a intra day corrective phase as a daily close above 1.8096 completeing the fall from 1.8793 at yesterday’s 1.7664 low. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 2.0155, only a daily open and close above 1.8616 will complete this fall while 1.7665 holds, as prices will subsequently move within a 1.8616-1.9204 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Please read the our GBPUSD outlook dated August 26, 2008.
EURUSD’s continues to move lower with our previously sited 1.4358 as the initial objective. A weekly open and close below 1.4358 suggest prices will continue to move lower with 1.3840 and 1.3321 as the objectives into the week’s ahead. Continue to use rallies as selling opportunities for the above sited objectives. Please refer to our GBPUSD outlook dated August 26, 2008-9:00 GMT and our EURUSD outlook dated August 21, 2008-8:00 GMT.
EURUSD’s has reached an intra day low of 1.4482 as of this wriring as we are short at 1.4556 with the pair likely to continue to move lower targeting the 38.2% of 1.1642-1.6037 rise at 1.4358. Intra day, look for prices to remain below 1.4553, as a break here will suggest further rise towards 1.4570 followed by 1.4597. Short term, the fall from the August 21, 2008 high at 1.4909 remains active as only a daily close above 1.4645 will complete this fall and suggest further consolidation within a 1.4645-1.4746 zone before another attempt to the downside. As to our medium term outlook, the fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037 remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.5077 will complete this fall and suggest further consolidation within a 1.5077-1.5443 zone before another attempt to the downside.
GBPUSD’s continues to move lower with 1.7412 as our next objective followed by the November 2005 low at 1.7058 in the weeks ahead. Intra day, look for prices to continue to move lower while to the upside only a daily close above 1.7935 will suggest further upside potential with prices then likely a to move within a 1.7935-1.8018 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside.
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