EURUSD’s corrective rise from the September 11, 2008 low of 1.3882 will be complete with a daily close below 1.4490, as prices will then continue to move lower initially targeting 1.4258. As to the fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037, a daily open and close below 1.4114 will confirm prices are once again moving lower with 1.3882 followed by 1.3054 as the next objectives. As to the upside, a daily open and close above 1.4620 will suggest further upside targeting 1.4712, as a sustained break of 1.4712 confirms prices will move higher within a 1.4712-1.5233 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside.
GBPUSD’s corrective rise from the September 11, 2008 low of 1.7444 reached a high of 1.8666, as a daily open and close below 1.8199 completes this rise, with prices then likely to move within a 1.7911-1.8199 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the downside, only a daily open and close below 1.7732 will suggest the fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 2.0155 was once again underway with 1.7444 followed by 1.7048 as the objectives. As to the upside, a daily close above 1.8288 favors further upside with prices then likley to move within a 1.8288-1.8433 consolidation zone before another push to the downside, whereas above 1.8522 confirms further upside targeting 1.8800.
EURUSD continues to consolidate the corrective rise from the September 11, 2008 low at 1.3882, with prices currently trading within the previously sited 1.4705-1.5214 consolidation zone as prices reached 1.4866 during late US session on Monday, well beyond our previously mentioned 1.4705 target. Intra-day, prices have reached the 61.8% of the 1.4866-1.4602 fall at 1.4765, with a sustained break of 1.4765 favoring 1.4804 and beyond, while to the downside, a sustained move below 1.4641 suggest further intra-day extension towards 1.4600. The medium trem trend remains down, as a daily open and close below 1.4114 confirms prices are once again moving lower with 1.3882 as the initial objective, followed by 1.3054 in the weeks ahead. As to the updside, only a daily open and close above 1.5528 will confirm a new implusive rise is underway from the September 11, 2008 low at 1.3882 with prices then likely to extend further towards the July 15, 2008 1.6037 high. However, while 1.5214 should limit any corrective rise, risk remains for further downside extension into the weeks and months ahead.
GBPUSD continues the corrective rise from the September 11, 2008 low at 1.7444 as prices remain within the previously sited 1.8480-1.9119 consolidation zone and should continue to move higher towards the next objective at 1.8800. However, the medium term trend remains to the downside while prices remain below 1.9119, as a daily open and close below 1.7732 confirms prices will continue to move lower with 1.7444 and 1.7054 as the next objectives.
As to trading, we have had 104 winning days out of the last 109 trading days for a total 5, 932 pips, with MTD currently at +793 pips. We expect the opportunities for successful trades to remain very high into the months ahead as intraday and medium term trends continue to provide a favorable environment for low risk trade opportunities.
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EURUSD’s corrective rise from the September 11, 2008 low at 1.3882 continues to move towards our previously sited objective of 1.4705, as only a daily open and close above this level will complete the fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037 at 1.3882, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4705-1.5214 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Look for initial bids ahead of 1.4552, as this is the 38.2 of today’s rise, while below 1.4506 will suggest further downside with risk towards 1.4443.
GBPUSD corrective rise from the September 11, 2008 low at 1.7444 continues to move towards our previously sited objective at 1.8480, as only a daily open and close above 1.8480 will complete the fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 2.0155 at 1.7444, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.8480-1.9119 zone before attempting another move to the downside.
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EURUSD corrective rise continues to unfold as the 61.8 of the 1.4909-1.3882 fall at 1.4395 holds, as a sustained break suggest further rise towards 1.4514 and eventually targeting the 38.2 of the 1.6037-1.3882 fall at 1.4705. Only a daily open and close above 1.4705 will complete this fall at 1.3882, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4705-1.5214 zone before another attempt to the downside with 1.3054 as the objective. Intra day, a sustained break of 1.4281 will complete yesterday’s corretive rise from 1.4099 at 1.4393, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4211-1.4281 zone before attempting another push to the upside. As to downside risk, a 1 hour open and close below 1.4168 suggest further extension to the downside with yesterday’s 1.4099 low as the objective.
GBPUSD corrective rise reached 1.8256 as prices remain in the previously mentioned 1.7806-1.8290 consolidation zone, as a sustained break of 1.8290 will see further rise with 1.8480 as the objective, as a sustained break here will see prices move within a 1.8480-1.8800 consolidation zone before another push to the downside targeting 1.7058. Intra day, look for a sustained break of 1.8081 to complete yesterday’s rise from 1.7798 at 1.8256, with prices subsequently moving within a 1.7973-1.8081 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. The current rise in cable is corrective as the broad trend remains down.
EURUSD continies to consolidate the recent 1.3882-1.4479 corrective rise as prices have essentially remained within a 1.4100-1.4380 consolidation zone. To the upside, a sustained move above 1.4251 will suggest further upside potential with 1.4395 as the next objective, while to the downside, a sustained move below 1.4100 suggests favors further downside potential towards 1.4023, with a 1 hour open and close below seeing further extension towards 1.3882. As menetioned in Monday’s update, short term fall from the August 21 high at 1.4909 is complete with the September 11, 2008 low at 1.3882, as further consolidation is expected in the session ahead. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, only a daily open and close above 1.4705 will complete this fall while 1.3882 holds, as prices will then trade within a 1.4705-1.5214 consolidation zone before attempting a more dramatic move to the downside targeting 1.3054 in the weeks ahead.
Similarly, GBPUSD continues to consolidate the 1.7444-1.8128 corrective rise as a sustained move above 1.7867 suggest further upside potential towards 1.7967 while to the downside a sustained move below 1.7705 favors further downside towards 1.7615. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 2.0155, only a daily open and close above 1.8480 will complete this fall while 1.7444 holds, as prices will then trade within a 1.8480-1.9119 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside targeting 1.7058 in the weeks ahead.
Intra day, USD is witnessing broad selling but any USD weakness should be viewed as opportunities to buy USD against the European and commodity currencies, as the trend remains for continued US dollar gains into the weeks ahead.
EURUSD reached a 1.3882 low last week, a few pips shy of our previously mentioned 1.3840 objective. Currently, the pair is in a corrective phase of the short term fall from the August 21 high at 1.4909. as the sustained break of 1.4272 completes the fall from 1.4909 at 1.3882, with prices likely to trade within a 1.4274-1.4516 zone before another push to the downside. As to the upside, a daily open and close above 1.4516 suggests further upside potential with 1.4705 as the objective, as a daily open and close above 1.4705 will complete the medium term fall from 1.6037 at 1.3882. As to the downside, a sustained break of 1.4139 will suggest prices are once again moving lower with 1.3840 followed by 1.3321 as the next objectives.
The broad outlook from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 is now complete at 1.6037, as last weeks open and close below 1.4358 confimed the rise from 1.1642 is now complete at 1.6037. Look for weekly closing prices to remain within a 1.4358-1.3321 consolidation zone before another push to the upside, as a weekly open and close above 1.4935 will suggest a new rise is underway from the last weeks 1.3882 low, while a weekly open and close below 1.3321 will confirm further downside potential.
Intra day, risk remains to the upside as only a 1 hour open and close below 1.4257 will compelete the short term corrective rise from 1.3882 at 1.4489, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4114-1.4257 consolidation zone, as a sustained break of this zone will see further extension in the direction of the break.
GBPUSD continued to move lower last week reaching 1.7444, as the short term fall from the August 21, 2008 high at 1.8793 is now complete at 1.7444 with today’s sustained break of 1.7959. Intra day, look for prices to remain within a 1.7959-1.8278 zone before attempting another push to the downside, as a 1 hour open and close below 1.7781 will confirm prices will continue to move lower with 1.7444 as the next objective, while to the upside, a 1 hour open and close above 1.8278 will suggest further upside potential with 1.8475 as the next objective. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 2.0155, only a daily open and close above 1.8480 will complete this fall while 1.7444 holds, as prices will then trade within a 1.8480-1.9119 zone before another push to the downside.
Our outlook remains bullish USD into the weeks and months ahead, as the current USD selling is only corrective at this juncture and any USD selling should be used as opportunities to postion for further USD gains.
EURUSD continued to move lower yesterday reaching 1.3882 during the early US session, however, prices were unable to hold below 1.3900 and have essentially been limited by the multi year trendline which begins with the February 2002 low at 0.8563 and comes in today at 1.3910. As to the intra day outlook, prices are correcting higher with 1.4090 as the next obejective, as this represents the 38.2 of this weeks 1.4427-1.3882 fall. In recent weeks these 38.2’s have proven to very reliable levels to set new intraday short positions, so, we will be looking for confirmation to sell EURUSD should this level hold. However, a sustained break, such as a 1 hour open and close above 1.4090, will complete the fall short term from 1.4427 at 1.3883 with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4090-1.4219 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, this fall remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.4705 will complete the fall while 1.3882 holds, with prices then likely to trade withinca 1.4705-1.5214 zone before attempting another move to the downside. So, intra day, look for prices to continue to correct higher towards 1.4095, with a sustained break favoring further upside towards 1.4154.
EURUSD continues to move lower reaching 1.3931 during Asia session earlier today. The fall in the EURUSD has been relentless as we had forecasted such a fall in our August 12, 18 and August 21 updates, but even as far back as our June 25, 2008 update we had identified chart patterns which favored such an explosive move. It appears at this juncture that the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 will be complete at the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, as we have previously mentioned that a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete the rise, with prices subsequently moving within a 1.3321-1.4358 consolidation zone before another attempt to the upside. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high of 1.6037, this fall remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.4735 will complete this fall while today’s 1.3931low holds. Intra day, the corrections have essentially been limited to the 38.2’s of the identified active wave, as the most recent fall from yesterday’s 1.4226 high suggest that inital offers will come in at 1.4044, with more offers up to 1.4079. However, considering the strength of the current fall from this weeks 1.4427 high, I would look for any corrections to be limited to 1.4120 while 1.3931 holds. Continue to use rallies as selling opportunities for 1.3840 as our next objective. As to trading, we have been profitable 94 out of the last 98 days and 20 out of the last 21 weeks. The trend remains our friend.
We were spot on with our EURUSD intra day outlook yesterday as prices moved to the 38.2% of the 1.4427-1.4047 fall, as was our forecast, then falling back below 1.4100, with prices currently in a consolidation phase with a slight upward intra day bias as of this writing. Our outlook remains unchanged, as we continue to favor rallies as selling opportunities as the medium term trend from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037 remains down and not until prices open and close on a daily basis above 1.4909 while 1.4047 holds will the medium term fall be complete. Elsewhere, GBP appears to be broadly firm today with potential for an intra day extension to 1.7700 for GBPUSD, but here again, the trend remains firmly down as rallies should be used as selling opportunities.
EURUSD reached 1.4047 yesterday, a few pips shy of our previously mentioned 1.4014 objective. We continue to favor rallies as selling opportunities and currently look for an intra day corrective move towards 1.4192, as we are targeting the 38.2% of yesterday’s 1.4427-1.4047 fall. The 38.2’s have consistently limited the corrections as will often be the case in any strong trend, most recently yesterday’s 1.4427 was the 38.2 of the 1.4809-1.4194 fall. Intra day, we are looking for a corrective move to the upside, with a sustained break of 1.4142 suggesting an intra day correction is unfolding with a 1 hour open and close above 1.4192 completeing the fall from 1.4427 at yesterday’s 1.4047 low, as prices will then likely trade within a 1.4192-1.4282 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the medium term trend from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, only a daily open and close above 1.4807 will complete the fall at yesterday’s 1,4047 low with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4807-1.5277 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. As to the broad outlook, we will be watching closing prices this week as the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active, and only a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete this rise at 1.6037, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.3321-1.4358 consolidation zone. However, with the never before witnessed +10 handle fall last month, a September close below 1.4085 will suggest EURUSD to continue lower into the week’s and months ahead with 1.3054 as the next objective. So, intra-day, we favor a corrective move towards 1.4192 on a sustained break of 1.4142, and as for the week, we will look for confirmation the rise from the November 2005 low is complete at 1.6037.
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