August 11th, 2008

EURUSD has just confirmed a sell with stop placed at 1.5025 for 1.4671 target. Look to establish short positions within the 1.4970-1.5010 sell zone.

August 11th, 2008

In our previous post we indicated that a close below 1.4970 at 14:00 GMT would confirm a sell for EURUSD, as 14:00 GMT has now arrived and prices are hovering around the figure. Intraday charts are a bit mixed while hourlies and dailies continue to consolidate recent US dollar gains. At this writing we do not see any favorable trade opportunities and the intraday environment has a higher than normal risk at the moment, so, for now, we will stand aside until better opportunities unfold. Please take a minute to read our weekly outlook.

More updates later.

Forex Signals Plus, RW

August 11th, 2008

We have just witnessed a push lower in the EURUSD and a broadly firmer US dollar as we are anticipating a potential sell confirmation on EURUSD at 14:00 GMT. If confirmed, the initial stop loss will be 1.5025 for 1.4671 initial target, with entry likely to occur within the 1.4965-1.4980 zone, assuming a close below 1.4970 at 14:00 GMT.

August 11th, 2008

The early European session has witnessed some USD selling and broad Euro buying fueled by hawkish statements from ECB’s Liebscher. Intraday, EURUSD is in a corrective phase with potential for 1.5133 target, although price action is turning a bit choppy and we have decided to remain flat for now until better opportunities unfold. Overall the market is pretty quiet at the moment as we are looking for lower levels to buy EURUSD, ideally around 1.5015 for a corrective move up towards 1.5133 and eventually a test of the 200 day MA currently at 1.5226. We will have more updates later.

August 11th, 2008

EURUSD opened and closed lower for the fourth consecutive week last week as this was our forecast, while today prices have briefly probed below the 61.8% of the 1.4309-1.6037 rise at 1.4969, reaching 1.4905 in early Asian trade on Monday. The 1.4969 level is sort of the “line in the sand”, as this not only represents the 61.8% of the December 12, 2007 low at 1.4309 and the July 15, 2008 all time high at 1.6037, but 1.4969 is also the 2007 high which occurred on Friday, November 23, 2007, the day following the US Thanksgiving Holiday. Furthermore, last week saw the EURUSD close below the 200 day MA, as this last occurred on March 23, 2006. Prior to this date, the EURUSD closed below the 200 day on January 27, 2006 and essentially spent 2 months below this level before eventually breaking back above which last occurred on March 30, 2006 and has stayed above the 200 day MA until last week. In that the 100 and 200 day MA’s are key trend indicators, often, when initially breached, market prices will tend to gravitate back towards these key levels. At this writing, the 200 day MA comes in at 1.5226 and we favor a test of the 200 day MA in the days ahead, while this will only be a corrective move as the medium term trend from the 1.6037 high remains active, as only a daily open and close above 1.5337 ( .382 of 1.6037-1.4905) will complete this fall at 1.4905 and favor further consolidation within a 1.5337-1.5605 zone. So, for the week ahead, look for prices to move back towards the 200 day MA currently at 1.5226 with an hourly close above 1.5133 suggesting prices are attempting to test the 200 day MA. To the downside, a daily close below 1.4969 will suggest prices are once again moving lower with the 38.2 of the 1.1642-1.6037 rise at 1.4358 as the objective.

August 10th, 2008

EURUSD witnessed broad weakness in recent days as my forecast for a weaker Euro last week was spot on. A few weeks ago I had suggested a daily close below 1.5847 would see prices move lower with 1.5583 as the objective. The 1.5583 level was a very critical level of the short term rise as this represents the 61.8% of 1.5302-1.6037 move. Similarly, EURUSD is now approaching another key level at 1.4969 which is the 61.8% of the medium term rise 1.4309-1.6037, as this level also represents the 2007 high at 1.4969 which was achieved Friday, November 23, 2007, the day after US Thanksgiving Holiday. So, this is sort of the medium term “line in the sand” as prices sustaining below this level target 1.4679 followed by 1.4358, as the later represents the 38.2% of the broad trend rise from 1.1642-1.6037. In that the 61.8 of the short term rise was breached quit easily as subsequently prices collapsed to within a few pips of the 61.8 of the 1.4309-1.6037 rise at 1.4969, the outlook remains the same as the EURUSD should continue to move lower with the fore mentioned 1.4358 as the next objective. However, should 1.4969 prove to hold in the nearterm, then at this juncture, any short term or medium term rise in the EURUSD will only provide selling opportunities with upside potential for a retest of the 200 day MA coming in at 1.5224. Often, when prices break key levels such as daily 100 or 200 MA’s, prices will gravitate back towards these levels to retest them before resumption of the prevailing trend. However, the trend remains down as 1.4358 is the next objective. I will have a detailed outlook for the week ahead during Monday’s London session.

August 8th, 2008

Our forecast from Wednesday proved to be very accurate as EURUSD confirmed a sell at 10:00 GMT, while the other mentioned pairs all confirmed on the close of the 12:00 GMT prices, as our price targets were also achieved. As for today’s forecast, our outlook was for EURUSD to next target the 200 day EMA currently at 1.5192, but that objective has been essentially achieved earlier in Asia sesssion today. So, now we will step back a bit and look at what has occurred over the last few days in our efforts to forecast where the EURUSD goes next. As you recall, on July 30, we previously indicated that a daily close below 1.5583, which is the 61.8% of the 1.5302-1.6037 rise, would see prices continue to move lower with 1.5302 as the initially target. The EURUSD closed at 1.5380 on July 30 and what followed was a continuation lower with prices reaching 1.5302 ealier today. So, the short term rise from the June 13 low at 1.5302 is now complete at 1.6037. This brings us to the next significant rise in the EURUSD, and that being the rise from the December 12, 2007 low at 1.4309, as we have previously stated that only a daily open and close below 1.5377 would complete this rise at 1.6037. Today, the EURUSD opened at 1.5313 and should close well below the 1.5377 level today, thus the medium term rise from the December 12, 2007 low at 1.4309 will be complete at 1.6037, as the next level of support will be the 50% of 1.4309-1.6037 at 1.5173. Any sustained close below this level will target the 61.8% level which is at 1.4969. So, we now have the short term rise from 1.5302 and the medium term rise from 1.4309 both now complete at 1.6037. This brings us to the broad outlook, the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642, as we have mentioned in prior updates, only a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will confirm the rise from 1.1642 is complete at 1.6037. Hoever, one hint that prices may be on their way to 1.4358 will be a daily close below 1.4679, as this will favor prices continuing to move lower with 1.4358 as the eventual target. Though, as to the broad outlook, only a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete the rise from the November 2005 low of 1.1642 at 1.6037. Also, a daily open and close below 1.5173 will suggest the EURUSD is entering into a medium term consolidation pattern within the 1.4679-1.5173 zone. A sustained break of the this zone will favor an extension in the direction of the break with downside break of 1.4679 targeting 1.4358, while an upside break of 1.5377 will target 1.5605. Finally, as mentioned in the August 5 update, the 100 day EMA currently at 1.5527 has been tested 3 times in 2008 and not until Tuesday’s close have prices been able to sustain below this level. Often, the break of such significant levels will see the market subsequently move back to test these levels and sort of “kiss em good bye” before continuation of the prevailng trend, so, look for a retest of the 200 or 100 EMA in the days ahead, as this should merely be a corrective move before a much broader move down. We will continue to monitor this possibility in the days ahead.

August 7th, 2008

Yesterday’s outlook forecasting EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD selling and USDCHF buying to occur between 10:00-12:00GMT was spot on as we sold EURUSD at 1.5476 at 10:03 GMT for a nice intraday gain with our MTD now at +251 pips. Today’s Asian session was very quiet and late in the session we bought GBPUSD at 1.9505 but never saw more than a few pips profit on the trade and eventually closed the trade at entry. The EURUSD also moved a bit higher in late Asia today and has essentially been held by the 38.2% of this weeks 1.5629-1.5397 fall at 1.5486. Intraday charts are favoring a move up and a retest of the 100 day EMA currently at 1.5537 should prices sustain above 1.5486. Today both ECB and BOE have rate announcements with both expected to hold rates at current levels. We will have more updates later.

August 6th, 2008

Earlier in today’s session we had several profitable trades with our best trade a EURJPY buy for a nice intraday profit. Our August results already at +200 pips and we are beginning to see evidence of early trend develpoment much as we witnessed in May and June . The EURUSD has closed below the 100 day EMA for the first time in 2008, (please read yesterday’s update) and this along with a couple of other confiming indicators suggest EURUSD will head much lower in the days ahead with 1.5302 as the next target. At this writing, 8:30 GMT, we have several developing trades which hopefully will confirm around 10:00-12:00 GMT today. The EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD are all setting up for potential strong sell confirmations with initial targets at 1.5300, 1.9400, and 0.9019 in the days ahead, while USDCHF is nearing a buy confirmation with the eventual taget of 1.1012 (38.2 of the 1.3283-0.9609 fall). These trades have not confirmed as of this writing, but may confirm during the 10:00-12:00 GMT period today. We will have additional updates later.

August 5th, 2008

EURUSD daily chart is at a critical juncture, as today’s daily close will determine where the pair goes next in the days ahead. However, the medium term rise from the December 12, 2007 low at 1.4309 remains active, as only a daily open and close below 1.5377 will confirm this rise is complete at 1.6037. As to the broad outlook, the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active as only a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete this rise at 1.6037. As to the current daily chart, there are multiple indicators which may confirm with today’s close that the pair will continue to move much lower in the days ahead, however, one in particular is the daily 100 period EMA. Prices tested this EMA 3 times in 2008 but have failed to close on a daily basis below this EMA, and not since April 2005 have prices sustained below this level, as during that period the EURUSD was in the early stages of a corrective move lower of the 0.8346-1.3667 rise, eventually reaching 1.1642 in November 2005, just 8 pips shy of the 38.2% level at 1.1634. Additionally, now that prices have sustained below the previously mentioned 1.5583 level, which is the 61.8% of the 1.5302-1.6037 short term rise, the outlook favors a continued move lower with the 1.5459 followed by 1.5302 as the next objective. To the upside, only a daily close above 1.5583 in the nearterm would favor continued consolidation within a 1.5583-1.5756 zone.