EURUSD currently trades within the 1.4679-1.4779 consolidation zone from the 1.4909-1.4570 fall, as a sustained break of this zone will see prices continue into the direction of the break. As to the medium term fall from the July 15 high at 1.6037, this wave remains active as only a daily open and close above 1.5130 will complete this fall while 1.4570 holds. A daily open and close above 1.5130 will then see prices move into a 1.5130-1.5477 consolidation zone, with any failure to sustain above 1.5477 subsequently see prices move lower with 1.4358 as the next objective. As to the broad outlook, the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active as only a weekly open and close below 1.4358 will complete this rise at the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037.
GBPUSD fall from last Friday’s 1.8797 high remains active as only a daily close above 1.8478 will complete this fall while 1.8284 holds. As to the short term fall from the August 11, 2008 high at 1.9256, only a daily close above 1.8655 will complete this fall while 1.8284 holds, as prices will then subsequently move into a 1.8655-1.8885 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
We are witnessing a correction in the US dollar pairs at this writing as EURUSD’s fall from Friday’s 1.4909 high is complete at yesterday’s 1.4570 low, as prices are likely to trade within a near term 1.4679-1.4779 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside. However, the more important short term fall from the August 11, 2008 high at 1.5083 remains active as only a daily close above 1.4766 completes this fall at yesterday’s 1.4570 low, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.4766-1.4887 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
GBPUSD’s fall from last Friday’s 1.8793 high remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.8507 will complete this fall at yesterday’s 1.8328 low. And similar to EURUSD, the short term fall from GBPUSD’s August 11, 2008 high at 1.8793 remains active as only a daily close above 1.8684 will complete this fall at yesterday’s 1.8328 low, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.8684-1.8902 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside.
Price action is likely to be choppy during the session ahead as the current intraday environment appears to have higher than normal risk evident in the market. We will have move updates later.
12:00 GMTEURUSD current intraday fall from last Friday’s 1.4909 high has reached 1.4570 low as of this update, as a 1 hour open and close above 1.4699 will complete this fall at 1.4570. Our target of 1.4358 remains, as mentioned in our prior updates. (Please read our EURUSD Outlook dated August 21, 2008-8:00 GMT).
As for GBPUSD, the fall from last Thursday’s 1.8793 high remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.8507 will complete this fall at today’s 1.8328 low, a few pips shy of our previously mentioned 1.8303 target.
9:00 GMT The GBPUSD remains in a very strong impulsive move to the downside with potential for much lower prices in the months ahead, as GBPUSD now targets 1.8303, followed by 1.8076. The events discussed in our August 18 GBPUSD have unfolded exactly as forecast with the recent fall in GBPUSD supported by significant volume and momentum.
Short term
The intra-day move lower from last Thursday’s 1.8794 high should continue to move lower with 1.8303 as the next objective, while to the upside, prices should remain below 1.8509. As to the short term fall from the August 11, 2008 high at 1.9256, prices were unable to open and close above 1.8795, as this wave remains active with 1.8303 as the next objective. Only a daily open and close above 1.8686 will complete the fall from 1.9256 with prices then likely to trade within a 1.8686-1.8904 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside.
Medium-term
As to the medium term trend from the March 9, 2008 high at 2.0397 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close above 1.9030 will complete this fall with prices then likley to consolidate within a 1.9030-1.9459 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside.
Broad outlook
The broad outlook continues to support a dramatic move lower in GBPUSD as was our August 18 forecast, with 1.8076 and the November 2005 low at 1.7048 as the next objectives in the weeks ahead. Additionally, a monthly open and close below 1.8303 will suggest further extension to the downside with prices then entering into a broad 1.6539-1.8303 condsolidation zone, as a sustained break of this zone favors further extension in the ditection of the break. To the downside, a sustained break of 1.6539 will see prices move towards the 2001 lows at 1.3682.
EURUSD’s short term fall from the August 11, 2008 high at 1.5083 is complete at the August 19, 2008 low at 1.4628 as prices subsequently moved within the 1.4802-1.4909 consolidation zone mentioned in our August 20, 6:00 GMT update, with prices eventually reaching 1.4909 last Friday. Prices have since moved lower today as a 4 hour open and close below 1.4742 will suggest a new short term fall is underway initially targeting 1.4628, as a sustained break here favors further extention to our previously sited objective at 1.4358. As to the medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037, this fall appears to be impulsive and only a daily open and close above 1.5166 will complete this fall while 1.4628 holds, otherwise risk remains for further extension to the downside. Intraday, prices must hold below 1.4755-1.4797 to suggest continued intraday pressure to the downside, otherwise, a 1 hour open and close above 1.4769 will favor prices to move higher with 1.4797 as the initial objective. ( Please read the August 21, 2008-8:00 GMT Medium and Broad Term Outlook).
GBPUSD’s fall from the August 11, 2008 high of 1.9256 remains active as prices failed to sustain above 1.8796 while 1.8512 held, as prices have since moved lower reaching 1.8403 as of this writing as risk for continued downside pressure remains high with 1.8076 as the next objective. Only a daily open and close above 1.8729 will complete the short term fall from 1.9256 while today’s 1.8403 holds. As to the medium term fall from the March 9, 2008 high at 2.0397 remains active and until prices can open and close on a daily basis above 1.9072 initially, and ideally above 1.9165, then risk remains for further extension lower targeting 1.8076 follwed by the November 2005 low at 1.7058. Intraday, look for offers around 1.8478 to limit before another push lower, otherwise, a sustained break of 1.8495 will eliminate any intraday downside pressure.The medium term and broad term trend remains down. ( Please refer to the GBPUSD Medium and Broad Term outlook dated August 18, 2008-7:00 GMT).
The EURUSD currently trades within the 1.4802-1.4909 consolidation zone as sited in our EURUSD update from yesterday. The fall from last week’s 1.5083 high is complete at Monday’s 1.4628 low once prices sustained above 1.4802. A sustained break of the forementioned consolidation zone will likely see prices continue to move in the direction of the break with an upside break targeting 1.4976, as a sustained break here, such as a 1 hour open and close above 1.4976 favoring further upside with 1.5166 as the next objective. To the downside, only a 1 hr close below 1.4801 will confirm the corrective rise from 1.4628 is complete at 1.4909 with further consolidation and downside risk within a 1.4735-1.4801 zone, while a daily close below 1.4694 will confirm prices are once again moving lower with 1.4628 as the initial target. Please read yesterday’s EURUSD outlook for details.
As to GBPUSD, the short term fall from last week’s 1.9256 high remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.8796 will complete this fall at last week’s 1.8512 low, and suggest prices will continue to move higher within a 1.8796-1.8972 consolidation zone before another attempt to the downside, otherwise, the short term fall from 1.9256 remains active with further downside risk. Please read Monday’s GBPUSD outlook for more details.
The EURUSD remains bid today as prices should contunue to move higher towards 1.4827 followed by 1.4874. We have squared all of our positions ahead of the US data due out at 12:30 GMT, but will look for confirmation to buy EURUSD after the event risk for 1.4874 intraday target . The short term fall from the August 11, 2008 high at 1.5083 remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.4802 will complete this fall with Monday’s 1.4628 low. A sustained break of 1.4802 suggest prices will continue to move higher with prices likely to remain within a 1.4802-1.4909 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Only a sustained move above 1.4976 will eliminate any short term downside pressure and suggest prices will continue to move higher with potential for 1.5166 in the days ahead. To the downside, a sustained move below 1.4754 will indicate prices are likely to move lower within a 1.4706-1.4754 consolidation zone, as a 1 hr open and close below 1.4676 will confirm prices are once again moving lower with 1.4628 as the next objective. Please read our EURUSD outlook dated August 21, 2008 and the GBPUSD outlook dated Monday August 18, 2008. Additionally, the June 25, 2008 publication re: EURUSD symetrical triangle pattern breakout should prove valuable to all who read.
The EURUSD remains in a very strong short term and medium term down trend from the July 15, 2008 high at 1.6037 which is impulsive, whereas, from a broad outlook, the move lower remains corrective. I will explain in detail below, however, the fact is, the sell off from 1.6037 has been dramatic and could be the beginning of a significant move lower in EURUSD in the months ahead.
Short Term Outlook
The short term fall from the August 11, 2008 high at 1.5083 remains active as only a 1 hour open and close above 1.4802 will complete this fall with Monday’s 1.4628 low. A sustained break of 1.4802 suggest prices will continue to move higher with prices likely to remain within a 1.4802-1.4909 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Only a sustained move above 1.4976 will eliminate any short term downside pressure and suggest prices will continue to move higher with potential for 1.5166 in the days ahead. To the downside, a sustained move below 1.4754 will indicate price are likely to move lower within a 1.4706-1.4754 consolidation zone, as a 1 hr open and close below 1.4676 will confirm prices are once again moving lower with 1.4628 as the next objective.
Medium Term Outlook
The medium term fall from the July 15, 2008 high remains active while 1.4628 holds, as only a daily open and close above 1.5166 will complete this fall at 1.4626, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.5166-1.5499 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Any move up within the current medium term trend is corrective, meaning, such a move will only be a market correction before another push to the downside which will be impulsive. However, ONLY a daily open and close above 1.5704 will eliminate any medium term downside risk and suggest prices are likely to continue higher with 1.5844 as the next objective. But as to the next potential move to the downside, this move will be explosive as supported by high volume and strong momentum, as such a move will initially target 1.4358. Additionally, before such a move can occur, prices should not sustain above 1.5499, and ideally hold within a 1.5333-1.5499 zone before attempting another move to the downside. Should the above described event begin to unfold, we will immediately alert our readers and follow with our trade recommendation.
Broad Term Outlook
The broad term trend is up, as the rise from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active, as only weekly open and close below 1.4358 will confirm the rise from 1.1642 is complete at 1.6037, with prices then likely to trade within a 1.3321-1.4358 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the upside. Similarly, as with the medium term trend, there is risk for a much deeper correction in the broad outlook with prices targeting 1.3054 in the months ahead, as a monthly open and close below 1.3054 will suggest prices will continue to move lower within a 1.1210-1.3054 consolidation zone before attempting another push to the upside.
Summary
As with our GBPUSD outlook dated August 18, 2008, the medium term trend is most crucial with the EURUSD at this juncture. Risk remains high while prices remain below 1.5499 for a significant and dramatic move lower in EURUSD initially targeting 1.4358 and beyond. As to trading, Forex Signals Plus has been profitable 79 out of the last 83 trading days and 16 out of the last 17 weeks and we will continue to improve our services offered to our valued clients.
At this writing the USD has made broad intraday gains while GBP remans broadly weak. EURUSD is holding within the previoulsy mentioned 1.4696-1.4737 consolidation zone, as today’s sustained break of 1.4737 saw prices move lower reaching 1.4688 low as of this writing. We expect further extension of today’s intraday move as we are looking for confirmation to sell EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and buy USDCHF, USDCAD as we move into the US sesssion. As to EURUSD, we will look for levels to establish intraday short postions while a sustained break of 1.4670 suggest prices will continue to move lower initially targeting yesterday’s 1.4628 low, while to the updside, any sustained break above 1.4761 will eliminate intraday downside risk and suggest prices will continue to move higher with 1.4802 as the objective.
As to GBPUSD, the short term fall from last weeks 1.9256 high remains active, as only a daily open and close above 1.8796 will complete this fall at Friday’s 1.8512 low. On an intraday basis, todays fall from 1.8684 to the current intraday low at 1.8542 suggest prices will continue to move lower today with a 30 minute open and close above 1.8596 compeleting today’s fall from 1.8684 at 1.8542, suggesting further intraday consolidation within a 1.8596-1.8630 consolidation zone, otherwise, the move lower remains active with last weeks low at 1.8512 as the intial target. However, the 4 hr chart suggest a bottoming formation and divergence which indicates prices will move higher before attempting another move to the downside, so, to the upside, while the current intraday low at 1.8542 holds, a 30 minute open and close above 1.8650 will eliminate any intraday risk to the downside and suggest prices will continue to move higher with potential for 1.8712. ad beyond. But in that the trend remains down, for the session ahead, we favor selling GBPUSD for a retest of last Friday’s 1.8512 low while prices remain below 1.8630. Please read Monday’s GBPUSD outlook as we will have a similar outlook for EURUSD published later today. Also, please read our June 25, 2008 update as we believe all who read will find the information useful.
The EURUSD’s fall from last weeks 1.5083 high remains active as only a one hour open and close above 1.4802 will complete this fall at yesterday’s 1.4628 low. Should prices close above 1.4802, the pair will then enter into a 1.4802-1.4909 consolidation zone before attempting another move to the downside. Again, until prices open and close on a one hour basis above 1.4802, the short term fall from 1.5083 remains active. Now, as to yesterday’s intraday corrective rise from 1.4628, this rise remains active and not until prices open and close on a 30 minute basis below 1.4737 will this rise be complete at yesterday’s 1.4805 high, as a sustained break of 1.4737 suggests further consolidation within a 1.4696-1.4737 consoldidation zone. Should prices consolidate within this zone, then an upside sustained break 1.4761 or a downside sustained break of 1.4670 will see follow thru price action in the direction of the break. Please read Monday’s GBPUSD outlook, as we will have a similar outlook for EURUSD later today.
The US dollar has given back some of last weeks gains during the early US session today, as the fall from last week’s EURUSD high at 1.5083 remains active, as only a daily close above 1.4802 will complete this fall at today’s 1.4628 low, otherwise, the short term trend remains down. Intraday favors continued rise with a sustained break of 1.4742 targeting 1.4802, as the Euro is broadly bid today against the USD, GBP and JPY. Look for dips towards 1.4720 to set intra-day longs for 1.4802 target. Elsewhere, GBPUSD fall from last week’s 1.9256 high remains active as only a daily close above 1.8796 will complete the short term fall at Friday’s 1.8512 low. We will have more updates later.
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