May 24th, 2008

EURUSD continued to move higher last week with 1.5813 weekly high, as prices will move higher this week with a daily close above 1.5844 firming up the pair for a retest of the 1.6017 April 22, 2008 all time high. A sustained break of 1.6017 targets 1.6173 followed by 1.6240, as the potential for a significant rise in the Euro remains very high. Intraday, look for prices to hold above 1.5610 to the downside as broad Euro strength should see prices make a new all time in the days ahead. As to the downside, only a daily close below 1.5400 will indicate the rise from the May 8, 2008 low at 1.5283 is complete with further consolidation likely before up. As to the broad outlook, the long term trend from the November 2005 low at 1.1642 remains active as only a weekly close below 1.4346 will confirm the rise from 1.1642 is complete at 1.6017, with further downside risk towards 1.3830 to follow. So, to the upside, a sustained break 1.5844 will see further upside potential towards 1.6017 followed by 1.6173, whereas to the downside, a sustained break of 1.5610 will see further downside risk towards 1.5548 followed by 1.5488 and 1.5408.

May 19th, 2008

EURUSD was essentially range bound last week as suggested in the May 11^th weekly update, as the weekly chart is nearing confirmation for a buy with 1.6173 as the objective. However, a weekly close above 1.5650 this week is needed to confirm as the next targets would be 1.5737, 1.5844 and 1.6173. Following a weekly close above 1.5650 would then be a weekly close above 1.5844 (76.4 of the 1.6017-1.5283), as this would fuel momentum buying for a test of the all time high at 1.6017 and eventually 1.6173. To the downside, a daily open and close below 1.5365 would be a very bearish confirmation and suggests the fall from 1.6017 has resumed with 1.5163 (38.2 of 1.4309-1.6017) as the next objective.